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It's similar to my previous ones but I was thinking about Lizzie's age and I think that actually she's probably younger then Red's ballerina daughter not older. If that's the case then she couldn't be Berlin's daughter's first born. Then there's the question about how old the young woman in the photo is - is she a teenager (15/16) or a young woman (19/20) or older and just younger than she looks (24/25)?

Anyway, theory:

Belin's daughter (BD) falls in love with a dissident and is smuggled out of the country and to safety by her father.

BD meets young lieutenant Raymond Reddington, they fall in love, marry and have a daughter.

1990 BD's past catches up to her when her former love The Dissident shows up - wanting her back. He's a powerful criminal (off the radar?) now. There's a struggle - hence the blood at the house. Their daughter is probably killed at some point (but maybe not).

BD is kept prisoner and has another daughter - this time with the dissident.

After his family disappears Red turns his back on his lawful life and turns traitor/to crime in order to find who it killed his family.

1994/5-ish he finds the house where BD and her daughter Lizzie are being kept. There is a fight, a fire and Red escapes with Lizzie, BD probably dying in the fire. Possibly BD has Red promise to protect Lizzie. Red gives Lizzie to Sam and turns his attention to building his criminal empire/reputation, knowing he'd need to be more powerful to take out the Dissident.

#1 on Red's list is the Dissident: Lizzie's father, murderer of Red's daughter and wife.
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iaria

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